ASB lifts interest rates

ASB has followed ANZ and lifted its fixed and floating interest rates by 20 percentage points. Their 5-year fixed rate is now 9.30% (the same as ANZ). Expect the remaining mainstream banks to follow suit within the next week.

Housing crash unlikely

While some commentators have talked of prices slumps of 20-30%, Bruce McKay over at his blog, The Analyst, suggests house prices will remain static over the next few years.

...house prices will enter into an extended period of minimal, if any, growth...my view is that there is scant evidence to suggest that house prices are about to “fall out of bed.

...

Part of his reasoning is that because the housing market in New Zealand is so illquid, it will take a long time for it to find its equilibirum.

I disagree, as if this theory were valid, then we could also apply it in reverse meaning the dramatic price increases of the last five years couldn't have happened.

Harcourts say volumes down but prices rising

The January issue of Harcourts MarketWatch newsletter shows January sales volumes declining in four of five regions when compared with January 2007. Wellington was the only region to record a rise in sales volume, with a 7% increase in January this year compared with January 2007.

However their statistics also showed average prices continuing to increase in all regions when compared with last year.

ASB Bank's quarterly housing confidence survey

A brief summary of the key points from ASB bank's housing confidence survey:

• 29% of survey participants expect housing prices to increase
• 28% expect lower prices
• 55% expect higher interest rates
• 8% expect interest rates to fall
• 27% believe now is a good time to buy
• 49 days recorded as the median in January for a house to sell.

Interesting that only about 1 in three expect lower prices - still roughly the same amount expect housing prices to increase.

Fixed price real estate firm The Joneses goes into liquidation

On the eve of a sharemarket listing, The Joneses has gone into liquidation. This is a shame, as the set fee of $8995 certainly seemed a lot more palatable than the 3.95% you could pay on the average New Zealand house.



Seems The Joneses struggled to get enough money together for their proposed listing, and in fact not enough money to keep their start-up afloat.



Their website has already been taken down too - couldn't pay the bill I guess.

Mortgagee sales triple on TradeMe

From the NZ Herald

Trade Me has three times as many mortgagee sales listed as it did in December, up from 13 to 45 in a few weeks, while Auckland's biggest real estate firm Barfoot & Thompson has 23 mortgagee auctions and tenders on its site.

The article also reports how a new website has been set up to assist property owners and real estate agents dealing with mortgagee sales.

Property Collapse?

Fairfax financial journalist Bernard Hickey figures property prices in New Zealand are over-valued by 30%, and a dramatic slump is inevitable.

By my reckoning, house prices are about 30 per cent over-valued at current interest rates and current wage growth rates.

He argues that the market will correct itself quickly (and painfully).

I agree that the market is over-valued, but will it drop that dramatically? Most commentators agree that the current boom has reached the top of the cycle, but I don't see compelling reasons for a huge and rapid drop. The market has started to even out, and prices in some areas may drop 5% this year, but overall I don't see any reason to panic.